What Is Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of discusses inflation and deflation however, not lots of people actually know and think about what inflation and deflation are. But let’s start with inflation.

We always needed a method to trade value and the most practical way to take action would be to link it with money. During the past it worked quite well as the money that has been issued was linked to gold. So every central bank needed enough gold to pay back all of the money it issued. However, before century this changed and gold isn’t what’s giving value to money but promises. As you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. Because of this they are printing money, so put simply they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This technique not merely exposes us to risks of economic collapse but it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy this is true. However, that is not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to pay back the debts we had, basically we make new debts to pay the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s easier to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep carefully the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because Bitcoin Era Site comes with an inflation target at around 2% we are able to well say that keeping money costs all of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is how our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This would be caused by a rise of value of money. To start with, it could hurt spending as consumers will undoubtedly be incentivised to save lots of money because their value increase overtime. On the other hand merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They’ll have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money because the price they will charge for his or her services will drop over time. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden as it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine what will function as consequences of deflation.

So in summary, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Therefore the future generations can pay our debts. Deflation on the other hand makes growth harder but it means that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it could be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for money and to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They’re limited in number and we’ll never have more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it could still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from the debt-based economy to a share-based economy. Actually, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of their company. This could be a fascinating alternative as it will offer many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I must say that the main costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees would be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that people inherited from days gone by generations.